Aquamarine presented the ISML community with a peculiar event. The top ranked contestants will meet each other in the final round of the Aquamarine period. Also, this does not mean that the winner of the #1 vs #2 match will take home the necklace. In the following paragraphs I will present the different scenarios, in order of decreasing likelihood, for each of the remaining undefeated candidates.First, to win the necklace, you must be undefeated. Because there are two (8-0) vs. (8-0) matches, 9-0 is what you will need to have a chance at the necklace.
Tomoyo
Scenario 1: Win. This will likely guarantee the necklace. No other scenario needed.
Shana
Scenario 1: Win and hope for expected performances from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline.
This will likely guarantee the necklace.
Fate
Scenario 1: Win and hope that Shana defeats Tomoyo. Hope for upsets from Kallen, Sakura, Aya, Suiseiseki, and Index.
Scenario 2: Win and hope Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for Haruhi and Kyō to lose their respective matches. Hope for one upset from among Kallen, Sakura, Aya Suiseiseki, and Index.
Scenario 3: Win and hope Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for Haruhi, Kyō, and Kotomi to lose their respective matches.
Kyō
Scenario 1: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for one upset from Vita, Patchouli, or Nayuki. Hope for a loss by Konata, Kannagi's Nagi, and Evangeline.
Scenario 2: Win and hope Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for wins from Sanzen'in Nagi and Shinku. Hope that Haruhi loses.
Scenario 3: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime, Hinagiku wins (same as a Fate loss), and that Kotomi and Haruhi lose.
Haruhi
Scenario 1: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope for upsets from Alice and Amu.
Scenario 2: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope that Kyō loses.
Scenario 3: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope that C.C. wins (same as a Kotomi loss).
Scenario 4: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for one loss from Sanzen'in Nagi or Shinku.
Scenario 5: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime and that Kyō loses.
Scenario 6: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime and that C.C. wins (same as a Kotomi loss).
Kotomi
Scenario 1: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope for upsets from Patchouli and Nayuki. Hope for a Kyō loss.
Scenario 2: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope for an upset from Alice. Hope for a Haruhi loss.
Scenario 3: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope for Kyō and Haruhi losses. Hope for an upset from among Alice, Patchouli, or Nayuki.
Scenario 4: Win and hope that Shana wins. Hope for losses from Hanyū, Kannagi's Nagi, Konata, Taiga, Nanoha, and Evangeline. Hope for Kyō, Haruhi, and Fate losses.
Scenario 5: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for upsets from Patchouli and Nayuki. Hope for a Kyō loss.
Scenario 6: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for an upset from Alice. Hope for a Haruhi loss.
Scenario 7: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for Kyō and Haruhi losses. Hope for an upset from among Alice, Patchouli, or Nayuki.
Scenario 8: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for Kyō, Haruhi, and Fate losses.
Hinagiku
PRAY FOR A MIRACLE!Scenario 1: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for losses by Haruhi and Kyō. Hope for upsets by Holo, Tamaki, and Tsukasa. Hope for wins from Yūhi, Akari, and Illyasviel. Hope for a loss from Sanzen'in Nagi or Shinku.
Scenario 2: Win and hope that Tomoyo and Shana go into overtime. Hope for losses by Haruhi, Kyō, and Kotomi.
--Xander
Image courtesy of melange.
Update: Added Scenario 3 to Fate. (3 Apr 2009, 0816 GMT (4:16 A.M. EDT))
*prays for a miracle*
ReplyDeletethanks for presenting these scenarios.
my thoughts:
- Hina was shafted in this Aqua period.
- I'm actually thinking that Tomoyo will really win.
- this feels very similar to NBA playoff scenarios. nice job presenting that "vibe"
site bookmarked. ^^,
Good analysis. The graphic is really good and helps to view well the situation.
ReplyDeleteIs something wrong with the RSS for this blog? It don't show any updates since the end of January...
Nice analysis and counter. I think Shana will take it from right in front of Tomoyo's face. Too many things need to fall into place for the other contestants to win.
ReplyDeleteFrustra: I was going for that kind of feel.
ReplyDeleteChaosprophet: The RSS issue has been fixed. :)
Seishi: I highly expect the necklace to go to Shana or Tomoyo. Then, maybe Haruhi.